A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
